March 15 2024

Weekly AgTwitter Recap (WATR)

The Birth of “Easy Farming” Reality TV?

Yes, but then you would not be “Average Joe Farmer.” We can’t all be SLE’s 🤩🤩🤩 (Bahia is a SMALL producing state). If you get the chance to visit Brazil, do it ASAP. We will be there next week.

Is there an ag industry more appropriately disliked than US pork businesses?

This is not a knock on the producers (they are great and bring the bacon), just a general observation regarding the companies and the state of the industry. You don’t want to be a meme in 2024, and you don’t want to be boycotted. You certainly don’t want to be both simultaneously.

Come for the entertainment, stay for the commodity good stuff.

Copper now, Sugar next?

X is engaging in what is known as shadow banning, so many of our posts will not be shown on feeds. This is punishment from the algorithm for pointing out the absurdity of their new ad model and claims of higher valuations.

We will continue to post news and unique insights, but there will be less and less over time. Below is the post that caused us to “lose followers” - which were never real anyways.

YAY for the new and improved X 😂 😂 😂 and our apologies to Brighton who got sandwiched into our ad feed.

The Social Media Elephant in the Room. We are #teamvine

Person who craves social media attention, unintentionally solves succession planning for farmers. What are you going to tweet about now @clintfischer? Btw, join their March Madness Pool.

The Call of the Week: Corn Bulls!

Twitter/X got confrontational this week as corn prices moved 10% off their lows. To be clear, higher prices and volatility mean more money in the value chain. We like higher prices. Most older grain traders have a downside natural bias for a reason. Younger ones tend to be mixed. Farm advisors and social media personalities are often permabulls. Farmers are bulls, but it’s about risk management not price direction.

This week, the bulls can take a bow. Now, just remember, take profits, and don’t get greedy. Don’t be the last permabull leading your farmer clients to the slaughter. The two images below demonstrate the contrast between how permabulls feel today and the reality of the last 6 months. South America has a lot of grain coming to market in the months ahead. Stay disciplined. Don’t be the one leading you clients to the slaughter.

Will the soybean bulls be rewarded next? The fundamental soybean crowd is getting very bearish. Remember, rallies happen when we expect them least. We will be watching 🍿 🍿 🍿

Here is a perfect example. These maps say nothing about trend potential of Safrina corn, and they mean even less to price (unless you are a local farmer on a basis contract). The year is 2024; we do not need to look at misleading maps and make guesses. Easy Newz will provide updates based on massive weather datasets and machine learning models. This is why advisors badly missed the 2023 US corn and 2024 Brazil soybean crops. Brazil and South America become more important to global price trends each season.