“The only rule for Ag Twitter Recap: If you don’t share it, we will probably miss it” -Easy Newz
March 01 2024
Weekly AgTwitter Recap (WATR)
What Do Wild 🔥🔥🔥 & Trading Clichés have in Common?
A: We don’t like them and for good reasons
Many farmers live in areas prone to wildfires. There is very little anyone can do during dry times of the year. The fires are still spreading, much of which is not yet contained. The photos below are heartbreaking, and they don’t do it justice.
Now that we have 🔥 out of the way, “Trading Clichés”
Never Catch a Falling Knife
More Buyers than Sellers
Markets Take the Stairs up, Elevator Down
Buying options is limited risk, selling unlimited
Panic First
Bulls & Bears get Fed, Hogs Slaughtered
The list goes on…
Hedge funds have been hogs and got paid. Commodity markets have been disappointed, and demand has NOT helped change this. Russia offers cheaper wheat, and France still has full silos. The market is focused on the bear stories BECAUSE Prices are falling. Funds will press to make $$. The market is not wrong, the analysis is wrong, or you were early/late.
“I Will Never Say Never. I Will Fight till Forever!”
-Justin Bieber (and farmers)
The Call of the Week: Bitcoin Go Up!
We will have a several-part piece on Bitcoin and why it’s all about speculation. The coin is speculative and that’s okay. People are holding corn to make more money. The hope that corn would go from $5 to $6 led farmers and advisors to speculate. Bitcoin is a much more extreme version of this.
The laser eye crowd- who suddenly lost their laser eyes when prices were down -preach the blockchain, hyperinflation, monetary debasement, and anti-establishment rhetoric. Yet, they make their money on “Bitcoin go up.” When Bitcoin is lower, the same people are quiet. When Bitcoin is nearing all-time highs, they make the Uranium crowd seem reasonable. Let’s touch on why Bitcoin is higher…
Corn permabulls & Brazil production experts’ offseason self-improvement
The US government is massively deficit spending, cutting taxes, and US equity markets are drawing in global capital flows. There are some really good macro accounts to follow that are interested in commodities. We will highlight them throughout these notes. Ignore the grain accounts trying to write about macro for clicks.
Bitcoin “COULD” get silly because loose financial conditions with an election looming suggest the likelihood of any responsible governance is pretty much zero. Also, the issues are fiscal, not monetary. This means the central bank cannot get spending/inflation under control with the wave of the interest rate wand. Janet Yellen leads fiscal policy, and she has a nearly perfect record of NOT seeing any issues before they arise. If you want to bet on Bitcoin, please do. Just whatever you do, don’t become an insufferable crypto enthusiast who pretends Bitcoin is about anything other than Bitcoin Go Up!
This is “normal” for Bitcoin people. Attack any reasonable tweet, even when the person was suggesting Bitcoin was a great buy. @TgMacro is a good follow.
The commodity classic was in Houston, let’s check what we missed!
Let’s get out the popcorn while we justify this beast and $4 corn…
speaking of popcorn…
What about “You think you wanna Ranch?”
A Quick Trip Around #AgTwitter
We are beef, pork, and poultry consumers at dinner time!
#PORKTwitter should be ashamed of itself, but we expect this is not the case. The below NOT analysis. There are 71 likes and 34 retweets too many at the time of writing…
There is a lot of great anecdotal information out there. Be more like Sergio!
All this is great, but what I really want is a sign from God it is time to buy corn.
God: See Ben’s Post
No matter how bad your week was, at least it was not “Wendy’s bad"
Live look at the crisis management team.
