“The only rule for Ag Twitter Recap: If you don’t share it, we will probably miss it” -Easy Newz
16 February 2024
Weekly AgTwitter Recap (WATR)
Ag Outlook Forum Week Edition
How macro investors v farmers see the world:
“My God, look what Cathie did!”
“My God, look what the USDA did!”
Let’s start with the positive…
And that was the end of it! Now onto the Negative!!!
In 2019, soybeans had a printed carry-out of 925, but most were trading 1.2 to 1.3 billion ending stocks. While positioning was similar to today, the funds will get shorter in 2024 due to modern quantitative strategies. Margins will contract across the industry.
Low prices mean it’s time to get efficient. Cordt is out here problem solving.
All that’s missing is the Ukraine flag emoji in the profile because then we will really know you care! 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
The Call of the Week: The Power of Social Media
Ben is absolutely correct. There is incredible power in social media, for exactly the reason Ben outlines below. The same content on one platform can be duplicated across many others, growing awareness for whatever reason you choose. The time saved and reach did not exist even a decade ago.
Ben, the bad news. The “likes,” “impressions,” and activity are often not necessarily real. Each day ad revenue falls, the platforms are incentivized to convince and manipulate you into committing your time and eyeballs to their site over others. This means that whatever reach you have today will be less in the future. It is simply math. Understanding this when you commit your content and time to a platform is important.
Below is a chart from the Pew Research Center on ad revenue trends. Here is the link for media trends. Ask yourself, if Elon overpaid for Twitter by roughly $20 billion, how does he recoup this when total ad spend is falling?
One quick speed round with Super Bowl memes & mercifully, the last we will hear of it.
#AgTwitter found the one Canadian taking time away from hockey season.
Okay, just one more 🤣🤣🤣
Inflation and Debt are going to have a profound impact.
@Paulomacro is a great follow. He makes a strong case for inflation and a commodity cycle (more applicable to energy at the moment). Outside of traditional AgTwitter, but worth it.
People ignored us when we explained why inflation was not going away. They chose to chase instead the weak dollar and rate cut narrative. Many ag analysts struggle to distinguish between non-rent (services) and headline CPI. This type of inflation cannot be fixed by monetary policy. THIS IS DIFFERENT.
Ags do not need to participate early, but a macro tailwind will be helpful due to the heavy stocks situation.
Here is our view on CPI and why now is not the time to get bearish ags. The focus needs to be risk management and preserving every nickel of margin. You need to click from your mobile or go here.
So you want to be a farmer? Yeah, it’s great, you eat donuts and buy land
“Honey, I am only going for the free donuts.”
(2 Hours later) “Look I saved $1,225 bucks an acre.”
✅ Easy Newz Approved Ben
Spends one day on an actual farm: “This isn’t for me.”
Brant, we think it’s super cool too, but you might want to try out that block button 🤷🏼
I was today years old when I realized every farmer in Argentina is black. That joke ends right there.
And Katie, the number is 515-555-8742
A good Iowa boy strolling around on a windy day
Speaking of cute, look at these two.
Since this is about positivity, here is a great story Clint shared about Jason Brown, ex-NFL lineman and farmer.
FlyoverWhiskey, what does a little agtech platform have to do to get on the mailing list?
AgTwitter remains undefeated
I am honestly a little embarrassed it took us this long to get a tannerite video in here. We will get better!
Don’t tell PETA, but we recently heard a rule of thumb: the cuter the animal, the better it tastes.
This man is a national treasure. Here is the link, watch until the end.
Displaying humility when times are tough ensures you the opportunity to fight another day. Sometimes the most important step to better times ahead is exiting the position and starting over. Good luck, Quentin.
We hope you enjoyed it, and have a great weekend.
See you next week.
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