Insights

20 January 2023

Brazil Soybean Update

Highlights:

  • Brazil harvest is starting slow, but will progress quickly

  • Soybean production estimates range from 150 to 160 million tonnes with most analysts clustered around 155.

  • Domestic interior soybeans prices are trying to buy beans off the combine 50 cents above the export level, this will not last much longer.

  • Farmers selling is 3 to 4 million tonnes behind, this will pick up as harvest progresses. Brazil lacks storage bins like the USA or bagging like Argentina.

The scope and scale of Brazil’s interior farms is breathtaking

Brazil’s Harvest, Farmer Selling, and Current Production Estimates

Brazilians refer to the annual harvest as the greatest spectacle in agriculture due to the breathtaking scope of the sprawling farms with combines and trucks lined up as far as the eye can see. It is that time of year, and here is an update through the third week of January.

Harvest has fallen behind by 2 to 3% versus last year as constant rains and cooler temperatures have limited farmers. Traders will talk about harvest delays possibly leading to disease or yield losses, but this is not a concern today.

February is expecting more of the same weather with seasonally cool and wet conditions. Farmers have become very good at harvesting in the rain to ensure timely planting of corn and cotton crops. This second planting is known as Safrina. Brazil’s record corn production, currently estimated at 126 million tonnes by the USDA, will require timely harvest and planting to be achieved. Soybean production estimates range from 150 to 160 million tonnes with most analysts somewhere in the middle.

7 Day forecast shows most of the areas starting harvest will receive 2 inches or more


Farmer selling is currently well behind normal, roughly 10% below the five year average. This means farmers need to sell an additional 3 to 4 million tonnes of soybeans to catch up in the coming weeks.

Processing margins remain strong, so domestic crushers are paying 50 cents above the export market for soybeans being sold off the combines. The export potential this year out of Brazil is 90 million tonnes, and the program will need to pick up quickly if it is going to meet this number. We will have another update in two weeks.